Firstly, thanks everyone for the replies. Very informative and much appreciated. Inspired by this, I went and did a lot of reading and some experiments and, somehow, I am now even more confused that before.
What I did was to firstly pick a runway, in this case Caen Carpiquet.
I loaded up the missions editor, zoomed in, took a screenshot and then using a graphics editor measured the angle of the runway. It was 121 degrees. Now, I understand that the map is in "true-north" orientation, so that means that the true-north bearing of this runway is 121 degrees. Fine.
According to various geophysical references, the magnetic variation for 1940 for the English Channel area is -10 degrees. That is, to get true bearing from compass bearing, you subtract 10.
runway4.png
Another way of thinking of this is that the magnetic compass reading is 10 degrees more than the true direction. So, if I was perfectly lined up on the runway at Caen Carpiquet, my compass would read 121+10 = 131 degrees.
What that would mean, then, is that the runway number would be 13.
So, I have a look at the AFB document and it shows the following...
runway1.png
Yes, this is the true bearing (assuming that the map is true north oriented). Puzzled I then made a critical mistake.
I did an experiment.
Here's what I did. I opened up the mission editor...
1. If the runway is 121 degrees true, then a plane lined up on the runway should have a magnetic compass reading of 131.
2. I then placed a marker exactly on the far corner of the runway.
3. I took a Ju 88 and perfectly lined it up on the edge (no mean feat for me!)
4. I then sighted through the Lotfe bombsight to ensure that the alignment is absolutely perfect.
5. I then waited for the compasses to settle and read them off.
runway_heading_test.png
For the Ju 88, the magnetic compass read 120 degrees. The repeater compass read 122 degrees.
I repeated the test a few times with different Ju 88s and got the same result each time. I would say my error is +/- 0.5 degrees. By the way, in doing so, I calibrated the horizontal markings on the Lotfe. They seem to be about 1.25 degrees each. That is the 4 ticks to the right gives you a 5 degree aircraft yaw.
Puzzled I then did the same experiment with an He 111. This time I got magnetic compass reading of 122 and repeater compass reading of 124.
Again, this was repeatable, and I estimated my measurement accuracy to +/- 0.5 degrees.
That implies that the map is on magnetic alignment. However, I don't believe that is the case either. In a separate test, I very carefully flew a long range calibrated navigation mission.
ju88_navigation_01.jpg
I did a very careful analysis of this (ask me if you want the long and painful details) and reckon that the map is "true" to within 0.5 km over 320 km. I was also able to explain the 1 degree drift due to a quantisation error in my calibration process. Thus, with compass and Kurssteuerung, I believe that micro-precision flying is possible.
So why the runway anomaly?
*weep*
The only thing I can think of is that it has something to do with the fact the aeroplane is not level, but is leaning back on its tailwheel. Perhaps it is only when the aircraft is perfectly level that the compasses are correct (although I note that the repeater compass never matches the magnetic compass anyway).
Okay, so let's then make this worse. Leaving IL-2:Cliffs of Dover aside and considering the real world (apparently this exists), I checked the modern Caen Carpiquet airfield.
There is a runway there at 125.3 degree true bearing. According to the current 2014 magnetic deviation, this is measured at negative 0 deg 52 min (= 0.8667 deg)
runway2.png
And that would mean that the magnetic bearing of this runway is 126.2 degrees. Round up and leave of the last zero and the runway number should be 13.
runway3.png
*eye-twitch*
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