Person infected with Coronavirus with no direct known link to China

[RAF74_Buzzsaw]

A South Korean woman was infected as a result of a visit to Thailand... where she was holidaying... no visit to China, no known contact with Chinese infected persons.

It is quite apparent the long incubation period, (14 days) plus the fact the virus spreads quickly... more like a standard flu virus than the SARS or MERS viruses, means the whole of Southeast Asia is probably going to see infections... with potential rates like Hubei... and these countries have either inferior or comparable health care systems as China.

The only good news... it seems most people who get the virus are able to survive it without much more than flu like effects... although the elderly and the young and those with pre-existing conditions are vulnerable.

Its the countries with poor health care systems and dense populations which are most vulnerable... I don't like to think what might happen in India if the virus gets loose there... the health care system there, while ok for standard illnesses, is just not set up to implement the kind of isolation care required. Plus a lot of people are borderline well nourished... If it spreads to India, then I would expect many thousands to die.

The other real problem is the effect it is having on the world's economy... with how interlinked countries are.

Korean automaker Hyundai had to shut down production on some of its models due to lack of parts from its Chinese supplier... those factories have been shut down to prevent infection.

China is a big supplier for a lot of US companies... think Home Depot and Walmart... may have an effect there.

[ATAG_Hawk]

Just another benefit of Globalisation.

[RAF74_Buzzsaw]

[ATAG_TCP]

Honestly I find it rather ignorant not to expect a large number here in Oceania to receive it. Even with good healthcare, these things are going to spread.
Queensland has recently acheived a small number of Novel C cases.

Luckily as you said there does not seem to be anything much worse than flue symptoms at this time which is good.
Cheers for the info Buzz

[RAF74_Buzzsaw]

Honestly I find it rather ignorant not to expect a large number here in Oceania to receive it. Even with good healthcare, these things are going to spread.
Queensland has recently acheived a small number of Novel C cases.

Luckily as you said there does not seem to be anything much worse than flue symptoms at this time which is good.
Cheers for the info Buzz

It is definitely worse than Flu... although the overwhelming majority of people will not die from it.

But to compare:

World wide an average 1 Billion people are infected with the flu each year. Of that number, health care analysts estimate (low figure) 250,000 will die as a result. That is a low 0.025 % death rate.

Now compare that to the Coronavirus... which currently has seen 20,000 approximate cases... with a reported 492 deaths. The current death rate is 2.07 %.... much higher than Flu.

If 1 Billion people worldwide were infected with the Coronavirus and the death rate remained at the current level, then 20,000,000 people would die.

In 1918 an epidemic called the "Spanish Flu" swept the world as WWI ended... an estimated 50-100 million people died. The Spanish Flu was believed to be a variation on the H1N1 Flu virus which has seen some outbreaks recently.

The Spanish Flu had a huge impact, devastating... more people died than in the trenches.

Spanish Flu is believed to have originated with poultry, migrated to pigs, and then to humans.

[RAF74_Buzzsaw]

Check this BBC story which clearly outlines how the Chinese Health Authorities have lost control of the situation in Wuhan City:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51379088

[ATAG_TCP]

That does put a slightly different perspective on the situation.
I recall I personally had a fairly full on kind of flue that was very different later last year, boy was I thankfull after that was over with!
According to W.H.O. theyvare saying we are in a window of opportunity, they need more of the Novel C case reports sent in in order to halt it early as they have only received 38% of the reports from outside China.
Will give that link a browse

[ATAG_Noofy]

In 1918 an epidemic called the "Spanish Flu" swept the world as WWI ended... an estimated 50-100 million people died.

In 1918 the population was far less dense than in 2020, and there was no developed civil aviation industry to shuffle people around massively as is the case today...

[DRock]

Doesn’t seem to be slowing this thing down yet.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

[ATAG_Noofy]

Doesn’t seem to be slowing this thing down yet.

https://www.worldometers.info/world-population/

Scary chart. Looks like a virus outbreak by itself...