Click on it for an up to date figure!
Click on it for an up to date figure!
Last edited by Archie; Sep-10-2013 at 12:46.
Interesting, if one holds a ruler up to the line on the full sized graph it shows us reaching the initial goal on September 19th.
exp-trend.png
Last edited by Old_Canuck; Sep-10-2013 at 13:15.
You don't stop playing because you grow old - you grow old because you stopped playing.
i7 980 @ 3.33 GHz (12 CPUs), Win 7 64-bit, 12 Gig DDR3, Gigabyte GTX 480 4 Gig, Corsair AX1200 PSU, CH Combatstick, CH Pedals, CH Quadrant, Track IR5. Upgrading to a GTX 680 when the wife blinks.
OTOH, if you extend the curve it never reaches the goal :-(Originally Posted by ATAG_Old_Canuck
56sqn US@R - Diary of a hopeless Pilot Officer http://roblex56raf.livejournal.com/
Windows 7 Home Premium (64-bit) > AMD Athlon II X4 605e @ 2300MHz
16Gb RAM > Video Card : NVIDIA GeForce 1050Ti
That seems right but the bar chart shows increasing amounts of funding for the three days previous to today so this could result in more of a straight line. The green curve will extend and meet the bottom curve at time of deadline but it's not inconceivable for both curves to rise exponentially. "All things are possible. Only believe." The bottom curve is the one showing over 250k projection which I'm hoping will accelerate over the next two paydays. What I'm really interested in watching for is the late reaction of enthusiasts with mega finances. People with a lot of money tend to watch for awhile before they jump into things.
Last edited by Old_Canuck; Sep-10-2013 at 16:06.
You don't stop playing because you grow old - you grow old because you stopped playing.
i7 980 @ 3.33 GHz (12 CPUs), Win 7 64-bit, 12 Gig DDR3, Gigabyte GTX 480 4 Gig, Corsair AX1200 PSU, CH Combatstick, CH Pedals, CH Quadrant, Track IR5. Upgrading to a GTX 680 when the wife blinks.
1,790 dollars are needed PER DAY for the kickstarter to succeed. That is really worrying for me.
See all the charts here:
http://www.kicktraq.com/projects/508...i-europe-1944/
Well so far its working out well above that figure. The main thing is keeping the momentum up, and theres only so much we can do, a lot of it is down to Luthier.
If he announces a flyable B17 as an early goal tomorrow I hope that will cause a bit of a surge in funding.
If its getting close at the end of the funding period I think a lot of people will up their pledge, although unfortunately there is a bit of an 'anti' campaign going on in some quarters currently which is quite depressing when you think about it.
Yeah. BoS forums and War Thunder forums are just attacking any DCS topic they can find...
I am getting worried. The graph is leveling off as I had feared (and is usual for Kickstarters) and the initial support is short of what I would expect to see from other successful Kickstarter graphs. Don't forget to factor in that often some pledges are not collected or lowered just before the deadline. I hope he flight sim community is different from the rest and they will rebound near the end and no one will default or lower their pledge. Fingers crossed.
I put some money toward BoS prior to even knowing DCS announcement. No offense to those guys, but I probably would have contributed that money instead to DCS (I ended up contributing to both).
I do find it interesting that BoS was so quick to make these additional offerings if you bought it before Sept 1st, the day in which DCS was to be announced.
It's not that I don't think BoS will be worth getting, I want to support all of these, because the genre is a speciality small market - but I don't have much confidence that BoS will be on par with even Cliffs of Dover as far as 'simulation' goes.
I am wondering how much funding is lost though because people contributed to BoS thinking that was all there was coming down the pike and now are out of funds to give to DCS.
People are sometimes very short sighted - they are only looking at instant gratification, not realizing that these opportunities to build a good combat flight sim are rare.
I do wish some of the DCS devs would defend what happened with IL2:CloD - from my understanding, much of what happened was out of their control, but they take the fault for it.
These are just my observations.
"My idea of flying is to have a group take off together, stick together, fight together, try to accomplish the mission together and hopefully all land together" - AKA_Recon
Am I the only one looking at the required funds and thinking "actually, that's not that much"?? What I mean is, it only takes one rich enthusiast and it could be fully funded. Weirder things have happened. Peter Jackson's spent lots of money on his "hobbies", even having a wargaming miniature company sculpt and cast bespoke figures for him , then there's his WW1 planes. All it takes is a single rich person who's *thing* is flight sims and it's a done deal. We shall see. I still need to understand whether DCS is actually something I'm interested in. I like the clickable cockpit idea, but the fact is once you're flying how often do you actually use the mouse? Everything's mapped to the joystick anyway.
My thoughts exactly.. what the hell can you get for £100,000 these days?
That's two or three mid-level staff for a year (without accommodation or infrastructure either)... that's it.
Assuming a $40 contribution, that means 45 folks a day for the remainder of the funding drive. Looking at how the participation has dropped after the first 6 days, I think 45 contributions a day at this point is a stretch. BTW, we can ignore the averages and trends that Kickstarter is projecting at this point. All are skewed by the bubble in the first 6 days.
Obviously that bubble is long gone and I don't believe that another "bubble" is out there (perhaps the B-17 but not at the numbers we've seen in the first 6 days).
Bummer.. very concerned.
I have an understanding there is internal funding already, that this funding they are seeking is both to provide the opportunity to use to get more features, etc... Also, I think some of this is a test of our community, people always talk about how they would pay 'x' amount to get a great sim. Well, here is the put your money where your mouth is opportunity.
Here is my concern and understanding of the kickstarter : if they don't reach it, nothing happens? Like if you reached, let's say $75-80k, that means no project ? If they said internally, even if we get $80k, we will try to build this and then change the model a bit, but at this point, you'd have to start all over and do another fund raising ? Similar maybe to BoS saying, contributing now will mean more down the road - but it wasn't a kickstarter approach.
I'm sure this is happening too - but I would think they would get support from investors, such as companies like Saitek, CH, NaturalPoint, etc.. who you would think want flight simming to grow as they make their money from us!
You think NaturalPoint would throw $10k at this ? I would think so - maybe they get their logo on the product start screen. Maybe that is happening and we don't know it - but if not - it should!!!
"My idea of flying is to have a group take off together, stick together, fight together, try to accomplish the mission together and hopefully all land together" - AKA_Recon
Recon I too see this as a bit of a 'test' of the state of the (so called) community. Reaching the goal means that people are still interested in a high def flight sim. As to Naturalpoint, it might be worth a punt, but as a certain owner of another game company used to work for them I'm not so sure how that would turn out! Oculus Rift is the future, I would be looking to them, and getting it integrated into DCS.
I'm quite impressed by the graph so far, but am disappointed its not higher, or even through the 100k already. If I was a rich investor I would push it through the 100k now, as I can see th potential, not just for us as simmers, but in payback long term.
There is a concerted effort in some quarters to discredit the project though, and I will bet that is having an effect, no matter how small.
I wasn't looking at it from the "100k isn't much money and what are they going to get for it" point of view, more the "100k isn't much money for some rich bugger to throw at something he wants". I expect that the kickstarter is indeed a way of raising some initial funding to speed the process along, and that without it we will still see something released down the line, but how much, and when? That's the big question.
Whats in my head currently is 'are there REALLY only 850 people in the whole world interested in a DCS level WW2 sim'
So far the highest backer is $1000 and there are only 5 of them. So, the companies should, but they haven't. Yet.
We need 800-1000 more backers not one rich guy. One rich guy does not tell the developers there is a strong community out there. It tells them he got them over the hump, but there is no money to be made afterwards.
For many people in the world the middle of the month is payday. Let's see what happens over the weekend.
You don't stop playing because you grow old - you grow old because you stopped playing.
i7 980 @ 3.33 GHz (12 CPUs), Win 7 64-bit, 12 Gig DDR3, Gigabyte GTX 480 4 Gig, Corsair AX1200 PSU, CH Combatstick, CH Pedals, CH Quadrant, Track IR5. Upgrading to a GTX 680 when the wife blinks.
I can bet some people don't realise the money does not come out of your account until the end of the kickstarter.
That's true, but the downside to that fact is.... I have seen a $10,000 pledge pulled hours before the deadline. For example, I could pledge $1,000,000 dollars right now and change it to $1 on the 4th. I have also seen a Kickstarter go over by a hundred thousand bucks and nearly fail to meet the goal at the deadline. Or the opposite could happen. Not saying any of this will happen, but its as clear as mud until the 5th. You just never know. 800 more backers is really what is needed.
dailypledges.png
Last edited by Robusti; Sep-11-2013 at 14:02.
It is obvious that there are many more than 850 hi-fi WWII combat flight sim fans in the world. So, consequently, the issue is to SPREAD THE WORD and make people aware of this project. The lack of support is exclusively due to lack of knowledge of this project, I am convinced about that.
I completely agree with that statement, Im spreading the word as much as I can.
I was following the project for the 'Omni' which is a large device, looks like half a dalek, that allows you to run around in FPS games. They only wanted £150,000 and they got £1,1 million! There must be a hell of a lot of FPS players with money, and space , to spare.
56sqn US@R - Diary of a hopeless Pilot Officer http://roblex56raf.livejournal.com/
Windows 7 Home Premium (64-bit) > AMD Athlon II X4 605e @ 2300MHz
16Gb RAM > Video Card : NVIDIA GeForce 1050Ti
Here's a quote from the SIMHQ forum:
"Interesting times...
Its a ambitious project, announced with Luthier's usual style
If he can pull it off then it should be very good, though after watching the P51 start up vid im not sure im that hardcore...lol.
We will see, deff going to wait before putting any money into it."
I agree that there are a great many more than 850 WWII flight simmers but I feel that the attitude displayed in the post above is typical and in far more heads than we'd like to believe at this point. Additionally, the damage done to the genre by the Cliffs of Dover fiasco can't be overestimated, IMO.
Notifying the masses is a problem... where else does RRG "advertise"? I suppose that they could leverage DCS' relationship with Steam and get an advertisment up on Steam News. The DCS WW2 story is already up on all the major WW2 flight sim forums. I don't know where othwise they can go to spread the word.
I'd say they should get the word out in all the non-English speaking countries. Is there even a translated verIon of the kickstarter page? There are huge numbers of Russian, German, Italian, French, Spanish fans of il-2, etc... Many of them probably don't even know about this...
Well the DCS forum alone has over 45,000 registered members and includes sub-forums in the languages you mention in your post. I suppose coverage may be a problem at this point but I think the primary reasons that Kickstarter isn't knocking at the door of the stretch goals is the relatively low level of interest in a "high fidelity" WW2 sim and the CloD damage done resulting in the "I'll wait before I put any money in" atttude. I see as of today, they're $38K short of their threshold goal. They may make the $100K but anything beyone that, no way unless a miracle happens.
I agree that at this point it is looking like we will be lucky to reach 100K and no chance at all of hitting stretch goals. Of course it is possible that a big backer is watching the progress and will jump in when he is happy that there is enough interest in the game; he may be saying 'I wont do anything unless the public invest 100K first'
Now the question is 'What happens if it does not reach its minimum target?' Do they give up? Do they re-launch it with a lower target and lower expectations?
56sqn US@R - Diary of a hopeless Pilot Officer http://roblex56raf.livejournal.com/
Windows 7 Home Premium (64-bit) > AMD Athlon II X4 605e @ 2300MHz
16Gb RAM > Video Card : NVIDIA GeForce 1050Ti
No it will be made anyway, it just won't be as good.
I have a feeling that the hard core fans are more vocal but dwarfed by the numbers of more casual simmers. I'm a pilot IRL but I care more as much for the game aspect as for the sim and from what I've read on this kickstarter, there isn't much game in this sim.
It has started to pick up a good pace now.
Posting Permissions
Reply With Quote
Bookmarks